HELLELUYA! (The exclamation mark is mine.) The rather unique form of the greeting is part of an Easter message sent by an old Esso/Exxon days Geologist friend. His mother tongue is Arabic. As result, my friend Bill sometimes communicates with words and phrases that are “Bush-esque”. Today his phrase was particularly “ept”, because it arrived as I watched Cassidy stock. It was getting “Shellacked”. A persistent seller was driving the share price downwards for the third day in a row.
Then, suddenly, HELLELUYA! the trend reversed. Buyers came out to lift the stock price and relieve the selling pressure. The trading day ended with about a quarter million shares changing hands and actually closing on an uptick!
CHOICES: We will never know whether that selling was a “short sale” by a wannabe market shark or selling by a shareholder hard-pressed by his broker to ante up some cash to cover a margin account. The world market is in turmoil. The US market literally stands on its head. The Fed drops interest rates and the dollar goes up! The greater risk of inflation results in a drop in gold prices! I guess its time to rewrite the “Economics 101 Textbooks”. What a heck of a time to find a goldmine! Anyhow - I hope the seller was a wannabe shark and that he got his lesson right.
In my imagination I see President Gillis. He is harassed by shareholders complaining that news is so slow in coming. As time ticks by it must seem to Gillis that the quote from Oscar Wilde that "He has no enemies, but is disliked by his friends" applies.
Eureka! At last he has enough data to allow a meaningful news release to be made. Did he rub his hands and chuckle in anticipation of discomfiting a possible short seller? I certainly hope so! And I hope he squeezes ‘em tight!
NO LEAKS: This “helleluya” provides insight into how Cassidy manages information. Clearly, information had accumulated for some time. It can be seen that it includes some very good results. But the trading history indicates there was nary a whisper of a leak. No leaks is an important attribute. It is appreciated by investors. They are all fairly dealt with. The lift in share price, although short-lived after the announcement indicates to me that at least some persons appreciate what the results mean.
SIGNIFICANCE: Some of us remember the original TV cop, Sgt Joe Friday, LAPD. The news release was like a typical Joe Friday utterance. Joe always wanted, “Just the facts Ma’am, just the facts”. So Sgt. Friday, here are the facts:
1. The results announced carry astounding implications. This drilling pattern reported might be described as “aimed at finding out where the gold ain’t”. Obviously, these holes were not considered as aimed at “prime targets” or they would have been done months before!
2. Serendipitally (Sorry, but I get tired of writing words that don’t send at least someone to the dictionary) these latest results demonstrate why we should listen when they say “Open along strike and to depth”. Results at the actively mined areas both north and south of Cassidy’s ground previously caused many gold seekers to write off Guinea as being “Small Deposit” country. “You want to find big gold, go to Mali or Tanzania.” Well, not necessarily so guys! Go just a little bit deeper and drill 3 widely separated zones with excellent grade content for thickness as great as 42 meters. That’s a little bit more than 125 feet guys!
3. Moreover, the description also identified “splays”. So was I anatomically wrong when I identified the area of the armpit? This looks more like the armpit maybe. The previously drilled trends now start to look like mere elbows on a centipede. The “open as to depth” suddenly takes on Dollar Signs. It says that the scooping study now underway should have strong impetus to be “optimistic” about the probability of developing a mine.
WHERE ARE THE WISE GUYS? Scouts at companies seeking advanced stage exploration projects have to be taking increased notice of Cassidy’s Kouroussa project. The depletion of gold reserves continues everywhere. Cost increases increasingly result in decreased world gold production and stifle exploration. The “inverted economics” attendant on the US trying to patch its “sick at home situation” must inevitably right themselves. As I watch the Cassidy stock action I keep saying to myself that there must be someone with “smart pockets” who stands in and keeps on buying. Most of a million ounces of gold resource. One hundred million shares. Nine hundred dollar gold. Hmm, that’s $9 of gold in the ground and growing, for $0.30. Time to stick around and see the hand revealed.
Keep the faith!
Rats and Bats!!
Answer : NOTHING !! except the stock price really sucks!!
I quote Resource World Magazine’s "How to profit with Mining Stocks" 2007 Summer Edition. "When the Company recovers many drill cores indicating good metal values over long intercepts, the share price usually reflects the value of the discovery – but not always. This is where promotion comes in. The investing public has to be aware of the discovery in order for investors to bid up the share price. It is important for the mining company to get its story out there to investors. When you don’t promote a terrible thing happens -- NOTHING". (The capitals are mine).
Cassidy’s management does not promote the stock
Announcements lack "embroidery" normally used to create wide awareness of potentials. Information releases are infrequent. Press releases are detailed, but entirely without "editorial comment". Failure to express even the most fundamental and logical anticipations affects shareholder appreciation of results. Popularity, liquidity and share price show no reaction to good news. Such news seems not understood to indicate CDY’s truly unusual success.
What’s next? Cassidy Shareholder’s anticipations are now focussed on an independent third party report. This will "officially" describe the situation following the latest exploration and delineation program. Based on questions asked of me by the "average" shareholder" I realize that many shareholders are unaware of the rules that govern the reports on which their anticipations are now hung. I will try to put these in perspective.
How come? : The disappointing share performance is somewhat related to Cassidy management’s self-imposed constraints. Results are reported in a way that undoubtedly enhances "professional esteem" from "peer engineers". But professional accolades do not serve the Company’s Shareholders. Failures of verbal communication are made worse by a lack of graphic content on the website. The Company has not made a publicity-oriented appearance for at least two years. Cassidy’s management and its independent consultants, RSG Global, release information that is very conservatively worded. It is very far within the limits proscribed by securities regulators and professional associations. They both appear cowed by Canada’s NI 43-101 mineral property reporting standards.
Those regulatory standards were imposed after the scandal and collapse of a company known as Bre-X Mining. Suffice it to say that all of the information released to date by Cassidy is complete, detailed and certified accurate. The only scandal is that the resource potential is so under-communicated.
Understanding the Reports: The content and format of reports released by Canadian public companies must comply with NI 43-101. The "official" definition of the descriptive terms is contained by reference with linkages below. The fundamental aspect is that these are essentially "pigeon holed" but do allow wide discretionary application of commonsense by the qualified person i.e. Geologist/Engineer preparing the report.
The next milestone: Cassidy engaged consultants, RSG Global, to once again prepare a NI 43-101 compliant Resource Report. The summary of the report is expected in October 2007. The full report is to be provided to regulators within 60 days thereafter. That is when I will be looking for key details. Many of today’s comments are based on the two reports previously submitted to Cassidy by RSG. As well, I looked at reports filed describing results for another company working in the same region as Cassidy.
And after that: Cassidy’s management announced it considers starting a "scoping" or Preliminary Assessments study. Scoping is the first step leading towards determinations of actual economic potentials for resources. To the mining community the scooping result starts to make things "really real". Shareholder enthusiasts long have considered the project as "real". But to the mining engineer, scoping starts processes of consideration for investment. There is anticipation of specific mining results. It narrows the focus and permits calculation and timing of possible future profits. This action should be reason for a positive share price reaction.
My expectation: I look for a major boost in reported, total, combined, indicated and inferred, resources. This expectation is based on the new drilling. More areas are confirmed mineralized. See the maps and comments I put on for my last blog. My hope is that the "hard marking" of last year’s report will be eased now that added drilling is done. Logic demands that the consistency of results implied by data from the several thousands of holes for which there are results should "loosen the tight-assed report writer’s attitude". The amounts of data are far more than my modest modelling program can employ and I rely on ‘informed by analogy’ analysis to make my judgement.
RSG Global’s Inconsistency ?: RSG Global reported NI consistent results from the first drilling program. It decided that high grades reported in cores should be capped and considered non representative. The calculations assumed that the mineralization could not be considered as continuous between holes. RSG calculated and reported resource in July 2007 of about 430,000 ounces of gold. It said that if the capping constraints had not been applied, the resource would total about 600,000 ounces of gold.
Thousands more feet of drilling was done. This confirmed that the mineralization appeared to be consistently continuous between most holes on a trend. The number of areas of known gold occurrence increased. The two first-found trends were significantly (I thought) increased in length and extended to greater depths. A dozen "new pockets" of gold bearing rock were confirmed by the drills. In April, 2006 I calculated averages for gold content and thickness of penetrated zone. The numbers generated times the dimensions of the reported trends showed a probability that the resources count would easily reach a total of more than two million ounces. My assumption was that the consistency of results would be considered statistically significant given the number of data points. Instead, the richest and longest trends were "marked down". RSG reported total resources at only about 750,000 ounces, combined. Even in "Gold Mining for Dummies" this is hard to explain considering the reports of extension and finding. There were no explanations given for the seeming subtractive interpretation
Too big a reputation consultancy? Cassidy’s geological consultants, RSG Global, enjoy worldwide recognition of excellence in mining geology. RSG manages day-to-day operations for Cassidy. RSG’s field geologists demonstrate excellent ability in interpreting the geology. They direct Cassidy’s project and their efforts seemingly result in improvement of grade, new finds and successful extension of known mineralized areas.
RSG is also employed to interpret, calculate and report on the results of the drilling. EXAMINATION OF RSG’S PAST EFFORTS IN THIS RAISES THIS QUESTION? Is protection of the reputation of RSG with "Banks and Buyers" resulting in RSG making "too safe" a calculation? Constraints applied in RSG’s calculations in its two past efforts seem excessively cautious. These are "very safely correct" calculations. Is this safety policy with an eye to better guarantee fees from Banks or major Companies? Is Cassidy a "small fish" not worth risking RSG’s hard won reputation?
Based on RSG’s past bent in doing its sums, I fear that the new report will be miserly. Despite thousands feet more of successful drilling in 2006/07 will the interpretation follow past practice? Will it calculate a very small increase in total resource? Will the increase be only in shifting results to a "more certain" category? Will RSG report its rationales for classification and consideration?
Geologist's Choice : Re-reading of the guidelines attendant in 43-101 Standards for Reporting on Resource Properties reveals this: The "Qualified Person" has great latitude in deciding on the decision to assign the classification of, and amounts of, resource. My curiosity about changes in the evaluator’s confidence level for the 2007 calculations is piqued. The matter appears to hinge on the evaluator’s confidence. I would ask this. If as an evaluator, you see a "fence" of drill holes spaced, say, 40 meters apart on a trend that persists for hundreds of meters, when are you willing to include the mineralization as a resource? Is it geologically and statistically logical:
1. To assume that the same condition prevails for 20? 40? More? Less? meters laterally to the fence? Both ways?
2. If there is a 60 meter gap in coverage followed by another series of holes 40 meters apart showing the same physical pattern and approximate grade, is there continuity of trend between the fences or not? Is there any gold between?
3. Whenever a hole encounters high grade mineralization is that random encounter always a total anomaly? Do you arbitrarily cap the reported result, or, does it mean you have "jewelry shop" areas that you "just missed" in your other drilling? Isn’t it possible for the high grade to extend for even a little? If you find several on the trend?
Causes Affected: Cassidy intends to have a scoping study done using RSG’s resource evaluation report. The assumptions and models created by RSG will strongly effect that report and therefore the appetite of investors and potential partners in the project. My cause in this is not to discredit RSG. But I do believe that the shareholders are entitled to know the actual parameters that RSG employs to include, project, exclude or discount reported results. Qualifiied Person, Please do not assume from our patience that all shareholders are qualified dummies!
NI 43-101 and the Post Bre-X phenomenon. The existence of more than 700 junior resource companies in Canada means that a company must do a lot of "squeaking" in order to get attention and its share of the "grease". Shares of a particularly well-greased junior, a public company named Bre-X share price rose more than a hundredfold and then collapsed. The Company’s reports were found to be false.
A get tough approach about "what may be said and who can say it" regulatory regime to get the heat off the regulators, was initiated. Reporting was to provide a consistent "level playing field." The protocol adopted was decided by geologists and engineers at large mining companies and market regulating bureaucrats.
The reporting standards are officially referred to as being in National Instrument 43-101 (sometimes NI 43-101 or NP 43-101). The vagaries in NI required creation of "Companion Policy 43-101CP to National Instrument 43-101, a guide to reporting under Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects. What it seems mostly about is the making sure that there is something in all the blanks. Understanding NI 43-101 and 43-101CP affects CDY by inhibiting management discussion and disclosures of "hopeful" activities.
Why do I call the NI Nefarious Idiocy?: The concept of a universal hard and fast formula to substitute for real knowledge and common sense benefits only the regulator. Zeal in seeing that smaller companies adhere to the NI 43-101 rules has some companies, like Cassidy, fearful of communicating opinions, hopes and ideas. The same zeal is not applied to the big companies. Pigeonholing the infinitely variable combinations of geologic and economics conditions is impossible. Some of the "rules" are benign, others are ludicrous. Bureaucratalk prevails in the documents.
Persons ask me, how close do the holes have to be to have so-and-so classification? The answer is, "Ask the Geologist Engineer - the competent person". It might depend on the consulting firm’s policy, the Engineer’s familiarity with the data, the region, the geology, the company, or even whether the Engineer had hi-test or decaff coffee that day. See for yourself.
The actual NI definitions are at the internet site linkages indicated.
Companion Policy 43-101CP to National Instrument 43-101;
Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects
15 pages
NI 43-101, together with its Companion Policy 43-101CP and Form 43-101F1 Technical Report can be downloaded from the Canadian Council of Professional Geoscientists website.
The definitions of resources and reserves approved by the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum and adopted by NI 43-101 are available from the Standards and Guidelines section of the CIM website
And that is not an attempt to express ownership in broken English!
No news was good news. Ordinary and unusual circumstances affected Cassidy’s operations in early 2007. Impatient shareholders deserted at a time just before the good news was announced. News of drill results in Q1 and Q2 of 2007 was delayed by country wide worker unrest and inadequate assay lab capacity in Guinea. Only three press releases giving assay results (June 26, July 10, and July 17) were issued between March ...
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Now Playing. Assays from all but the last half dozen or so cored holes have been announced. Based on the exploration history here, fewer than 9% of the exploratory holes evidenced poor gold content. So I say that: assays still to come will show 5.4 out of 6 core holes found the gold bearing veins to extend beyond the limits known at end of March, 2005. This good news will have the same effect on the market as the rest of the recent past good news. Phhhht!
Put up a sign Cassidy : ADDITIONAL KNOWLEDGEABLE SHAREHOLDERS WANTED!
Announcements the last week in March 2005 brought home the fact that Cassidy is literally digging up a "helluva" lot of dirt! Here are my observations on what I believe is happening in THE HUNT (big letters intended).
Change of pace. Between June 2003 and late March 2005 there were approximately 175 core drill holes done. The Reverse Circulation (hereinafter "RC") drill started in early 2005. This changed the drilling dynamic incredibly. Remember, drilling 175 core holes required an almost constant effort for nearly two years. The RC drilling started in January 2005 and before the end of March it had drilled 256 holes. The RC rig made a hole in 10,674 meters of dirt (or saprolite to the geological purists). (For us fossils, that is 6 1/4 miles of hole, or, almost as far as the distance we walked through fierce blizzards while going to school every day, remember?)
In fairness, the RC had an easier task. It concentrated on drilling the shallower easy to dig gold containing stuff. It's a "dirty" job but it needs be done. Let me explain.
Putting things in perspective. RC drilling does not provide as much visual information for geologists as core does. But, it provides a very economic way to get samples from underground. It is great when used for certain chores. Cassidy geologists can now project where the gold is in the two trends that had lots of coring done. What they need now is to better establish "How much can be pay dirt and how much gangue?". (Gangue is useless material in mining talk. Do not confuse gangue with Ganja) Think of gangue as "overhead". You can't get away from it entirely but you want to keep amounts moved low.
A Geology "smidgen". Cassidy identifies, among others, two nearly-parallel, close-by gold containing trends, the Sanu Filanan and the JJ. Each has economically significant gold occurrences. It's time to think about how one might mine this. Two investigations are needed. One is to more precisely determine the amount of gold within the trend. The second is to get an idea of whether and how gold can be taken at a profit. The first task is well advanced in determining the indicated resource of the Sanu Filanan. And, although the JJ trend was not studied with the same intensity, the similarities between the two are evident. Therefore, one can reasonably say that the shallow part of these trends, when mined, is likely to yield between 40,000 ounces and 80,000 ounces of gold for every 100 meter length of trend now known. Will it be economic to mine this gold? How should one expect to best do it?
The gold bearing veins are contained in two basic settings. Veins cut through an upper layer of rock that has been "weathered". That means the rock has "rotted" right there "in place". Anybody other than a geologist would call it dirt. Deeper down, the rock is not "rotten". It is referred to as bedrock. Millennia ago, while the "dirt" was still "bedrock" the area was wracked by mountain-building forces. These earth movements created breaks in the brittle rock. Hot fluids squirted into the cracks. As the fluids cooled they deposited minerals in these cracks or "veins". In the area Cassidy is drilling, the mineral deposited in the veins is gold.
Drilling shows that there is a varying thickness, up to 100 meters of the soft rock. The RC drill goes through this stuff like grass through a goose! It will be easy to dig, move and crumble the saprolite (dirt) to get the gold out. To get it you may dig a long deep trench reaching to the bedrock. This is called "pit mining". But you cannot just dig straight down. You need to assure that there is room for roads into the pit and provide slopes so that the sides of your hole are not so steep that they cave in on you. Complexity arises. If you are going to pit mine the Sanu Filanan maybe you should widen the pit to take the JJ gold as well. Maybe even the north SF. So you see, you have to know a lot about dirt.
Picture this: The "trend" along its length is like a ribbon sitting on edge. The lower edge of the ribbon goes down into the earth for an unknown distance. If we were to look at a cut across the trend(s) line we would see a pattern that looked somewhat like a tree with branches. Now imagine two trees side by side on the prairie. One is the SF and the other the JJ. The constant wind has caused them to grow with their tops leaning toward the east. The branches of one tree may overlap the branch pattern of the other. (Like the SF seems to do to JJ at the north) In place of a tree, imagine that the trunks represent the main part of the trend and the branches are the smaller cracks. Both the large and small veins contain gold. You need to design diggings that get all the gold that it is practical to take, and as little gangue as possible.
Watching paint dry? The RC drill is drilling rows of holes, as if fence post holes for a giant's fence. It is investigating the gold content of the area occupied by the "branches" between the two known trends . This may not stir a lot of excitement but it provides info needed to make plans for mining. Some high grade areas may be found. We saw some, reported as "highlights" from the RC holes announced on March 30. The work will help in planning a pit that is efficient, taking the greatest proportion of pay dirt to gangue. It should eliminate the possibility that a powerhouse, road or mill is located atop an area that should be mined. Exploration of the deeper, "bedrock" potential that exists represents "in the future" excitement potential. But for now, the drills dials are set on "soft" and "dirt".
The exciting part is still to come. Cassidy's "knowing eyes" look at where artisanal workings have been done, where geochemistry shows concentration of gold or where the geologists find promising looking ridges to rip into with the bulldozer. Cassidy has created a catalogue of continuing opportunities. These "leads" can be efficiently given the "further quick look see" with the RC drill. It is cheaper than using the core drill. The RC does not need a water supply to drill. It is more mobile than the core rig. It can operate through the rainy season. By drilling an "X" pattern of holes bracketing an area of interest the RC can quickly evaluate those targets where the greater "wisdom value" of the core drill can be best directed. Core is needed to determine the "geometry" of a find of the type known here..
Coming attractions:
1. Assay results of "fairway" cores still not reported.
2. Results from literally hundreds of soil geochem samples. Remember, "soils" led Cassidy to drill the current discoveries.
3. When not building roads for the drill, the dozer rips the dirt for trench samples. Results from this can lead to added new target areas.
4. The RC drill will begin a series of exploration holes within a week or so.
5. The core drill will resume work in about three weeks. Please get your popcorn and beverages now. You don't want to miss any of the main feature.
RSG GLOBAL EARNS A GOLD STAR FOR ITS RESOURCE SUMMARY REPORT
RSG Global's
SO, THERE IS NO EGG ON MY FACE AND NO CROW IN MY DIET!
The "more generous" calculations reported by RSG (although still properly professionally cautious) are for the 700 meters of trend they evaluated. This is 74% of the real length (used in my effort). They didn't add the extensions by holes drilled and reported in 2005. RSG's number corresponds almost exactly with mine, at 802,071 (taken in proportion), compared to the 800,000 ounces of gold that my simple calculations predicted as the lower end of my numbers.
What's next? A lot of work!
Cassidy's treasury is replenished. The company can do both explore and confirm, and delineate resources. A backlog of assay information and to-be assayed samples is building up. A worldwide spate of frantic mining exploration, especially the gold hunt, is straining the resources of service providers. Last week, this made headlines. Assay turn-around times of three weeks or more are reported and an almost total unavailability of drill equipment and staff were reported. Cassidy is caught in the assay crush but blessed by having two of the scarce drill rigs.
Specific near time tasks include :
1. Drilling more holes along the JJ trend. RSG's report strongly recommends this because it sees JJ as an even richer trend than the S.F.
2. More holes are needed to bring the S.F. to a drill spacing that will permit studies leading to the preparation of a Bankable Feasibility Study. (applies to JJ as well).
3. Drill RC holes twinning one or two coreholes to confirm truth in samples obtained from RC drilling.
4. Study geology of the S.F. and JJ to predict where best to drill holes to extend (or maybe join?) the trends.
5. Solve the assay delay problem.
a. Drilling without having assays results to guide efforts is OK when drilling between already sampled points to upgrade the classification of state of confidence in the resource value.
b. Drilling to explore new trends can be tricky if likely gold bearing intervals are not visually identifiable. It can waste a lot of time and money, and even worse, cause one to miss some goodies. Fortunately, Cassidy has a lot of "infill" drilling that needs to be done on the S.F. and JJ.
c. Cassidy has at least a half dozen still-undrilled trends where strong clues point to equal to, or better than, S.F. or JJ gold content potentials. Cassidy can therefore easily pace itself in a program that would test new trends without risk of wasting efforts on lower quality alternates because of assay delay.
Watching the neighbours.
On March 12, 2005, a Guinea miner, the Canadian Norwegian amalgam called Guinor "left its blinds up". We saw intent to install a $15 million operation to recover gold from three localities north of Cassidy's permits. My impression is that those deposits are not as rich as Cassidy's. Despite that, the projected numbers are impressive! They forecast cash costs less than $200 per ounce produced. At the expected mining rate, the facility will pay out in less than three months. The reserves are expected to last for seven to ten years.
Implications for Cassidy.
Today, Cassidy entered a new category of "investment" identity. A worldwide respected firm of engineers trusted by Banks and Securities Regulators has spoken. RSG Global says that Cassidy has inferred resources in one trend and likelihood of even richer resources in a second trend. The classification of the "degree of certainty" used to express the confidence that the engineers put on their interpretation of facts is expressed in a universal "language". This language was devised and approved by the C.I.M., the Canadian Institute Of Mining (and Metallurgy), an august and ancient professional body. Like any proper language there are rules of grammar. The grammar provides a basic level for expressing degrees of confidence a scientist has that a mineral body of specific size exists. Interpreters may have differing experience with specific types of deposits. The grammar includes rules and certain mathematical/statistical tests. Even if not always correct, these always treat data in the same way. Testing identifies the most common errors, omissions or misstatements. The language provides a basis for communicating value between sophisticated professionals.
RSG recommends that Cassidy should drill more holes on both the S.F. and JJ trends that already show promise of economic value. The drilling will provide data that will increase the confidence of the engineers in stating that a specific amount of gold exists. Future reports that are issued are almost certain to show higher "counts" of gold to exist because they will look at a larger volume of rock known to contain gold. "Infill" holes will upgrade the degree of certainty expressed. When a concrete business plan can be prepared to see the resource exploited, the highest category, "proved reserve" is applied. That is Cassidy's ever-targeted goal.
Cassidy's share prices have, until now, depended on whether assays added gold-bearing zones, and whether these exceeded or were less than the market's anticipations. "The next hole will make it or break it" statements are great for brokers who prosper if there are lots of orders to fill. It doesn't mean anything to an investor (unless the Company is spending its last dollar) except perhaps if he is a speculator, then he should have sold the stock the previous trading day. Results always disappoint some speculators. As the play matures, there will be fewer speculators. The imprimatur given by RGS, although only "inferred resource", provides a peg to hang one's hat on. There is a basis for intelligent interpretation using whatever past knowledge one has.
Here is how I see it. The "knock down drag'em out number of ounces of resource" determined by RSG is 315,000. Let's "mentally" mine these. If cash production costs are projected to be not higher than the neighbours', and assuming the same capital cost gives same throughput and production, then projected Cassidy earnings are $1 per share. That means the stock was undervalued if selling at under $1 because there was no "hope" in it at all, it was all "value".
Let's put some "hope" in. Mentally mine the total 950 meter length of the S.F. and the 500 meter of JJ. Take out the highgrade caps and restraints. Now we have 1.5 million ounces and a five year mine life. It used up our entire store of "hope" but we have a $5 stock.
Let's really put the hope in. We see what results from drilling and mining the S.F. and JJ. We spend some of the earnings to drill still unexplored other anomalies that look as good as S.F. and JJ. Depending on: the two-years-out gold price, anticipations for future gold prices and expectation of added reserves from continuing exploration of trends ten or more times the length of the producing ones, the Cassidy stock could, in two years, support a 20Xs to 30Xs current PE.
Good work RSG!
Your sophisticated science confirms what this old exploration Geologist saw using common horse sense. You get a Gold Star!
Cassidy’s own Golden Gate. While contemplating how to interpret the significance of results announced by Cassidy on February 17 and 18, I suddenly cried “Eureka”. All you Greek scholars will of course remember how an ancient Greek philosopher, Archimedes, solved the dilemma of how to avoid death if he failed to find a way to assure that the King was not cheated on the amount of gold in a new crown. One day, while getting into his bath he noticed water spilling over the sides. In a flash, Archimedes realized the relation between specific density and volume. He could therefore confirm the amount of gold in the crown. Archimedes was so excited with his discovery that he hopped out of the bath, and rushed naked into the street yelling triumphantly, 'Eureka!' 'Eureka!' (Greek word for 'I have found it!).
I was using the abbreviation S.F. to identify the Feb. 17 assay information from the Sanu Filanan trend and was wondering whether, if I left that abbreviation in, it would be confusing in the future since there is another S.F. the Sanu Folo feature. My wandering brain then connected S.F. also to San Francisco, and thus, the Golden Gate, a bridge, the word gold and then the analogy came to me! I didn’t run out into the street yelling Eureka! (couldn’t, cuz my bathtub leaks – go Cassidy go!! I need to be able to hire a plumber).
Several persons had called asking, “What does this mean?” I had said it was obviously good news. I was looking at the map provided on Cassidy’s site http://www.cassidygold.com/i/pdf/sanufilanan/2005-01_KoekoeAreas.pdf
to pinpoint the location of the twelve new holes which had been drilled when it came to me. Twelve holes. (All showing cores with gold content in the S.F. trend!) I quickly checked the count. Previously there had been 62 holes into the S.F. So, in little more than a month in 2005, the company had added 20% more confidence building knowledge and extended the length of the trend by almost 20% as well.
There’s more. Remember the feature that I was excited about and compared the geometry of it to an armpit? Now, they have found at least two more “armpit” type features. These carry a lot more weight than the first ones we saw. These are fatter and carry a higher gold content. Therefore, we should call them by their proper geologic name, “Conjugate Shear”. Look at the map to see how the NW end of the Sanu Filanan S.F. now extends to within a strong man’s spit distance of the Sanu Folo (there’s another S.F.) trend. See how the angle between the projection (just squint a little) of the S.Filanan trend and the S. Folo intersect at about a 30 degree angle. That’s the sign of a conjugate shear relationship. Now, let’s see which is likely the parent fault (or shear) and which is the conjugate (the child fault). Look to the upper right of the map. There’s our old buddy the JJ trend, with a trend that is parallel to the S Filanan. So the S. Folo is maybe, an armpit. And does anyone want to bet on what will be found when the Reverse Circulation (“R.C”) drill starts to investigate the territory between the JJ and the S. Filanan? More armpits I’ll bet! And that’s how more “tonnage” can be added, right here at our very own Golden Gate. Of course, the “daddy S.F.” and “mommy JJ” fault trends don’t end where the drilling stops. They carry on towards the NW and SE. There hasn’t been any drilling there yet. Some other hints here too. When we look at the S. Filanan trend map there are “feathers” or “armpits” (showing in red color) pointing the other way (west) from the trend. Do you think that maybe that S.F. Daddy fault might have something going on the other side too? Could be!
There are a lot of other “fault families”. Many are already indicated by the preliminary work. Maps showing geochemical signs just like the S.Filanan and JJ did suggest that the exploration of the “X”, “Banjo”, Sidafa, Mani can be equally interesting. Very interesting indeed! So the starting point, the gateway to the Guinean gold is right there at the S.F.’s!
Pity the poor consultants of RSG Global! They are hard at work calculating the quantity of gold resource indicated by the first two years of Cassidy’s explorations. But they are already behind by at least 20% because of new core holes already drilled in 2005. So, by the time they release their first report, it will already be out of date by at least 20% - and even more when one considers that the Reverse Circulation (“RC”) drill drills up a storm relative to the core drill’s penetration rate. If the core drill did 12 holes you can bet that the RC has done more than 50 by now. So none of the new data (which has probably doubled the knowledge and confidence) will be in the first report expected within only a few weeks.
The fog is clearing. I think you can see already why I like the Golden Gate Bridge analogy. There’s more. For the first time I can remember since the time of getting the initial results from Guinea, the Company did a major financing without first having to see the very dickens kicked out of the stock price to make it attractive to investors. The issuance of $1.8 millions worth of shares at $0.60 p.s. announced Feb 18 must have been negotiated at the time when the shares were trading at between $0.45 and $0.50 p.s. Someone else believes!
At last, the stock should buck every down trend! The pattern of needing to depend only on the local stalwarts, the investors from the Okanagan, all persons who know and respect JT (Gillis), seems to have changed. Whoever and wherever the new investors are from, the breakout from the “valley group of investors” is also a breakout from the rut that the shares had settled into.
Bulls get rich, Bears get rich but Guinea pigs can get even richer.This variant of the traditional market adage seems apropos as more good news from Guinea is heaped onto Cassidy's overflowing good news pile.So call me a Guinea Pig. Not in the lab animal pig sense but in the over abundance piggy sense. Assay information from the most recent seven of the 125-KD series core holes of Kourassa project drilling is posted on Cassidy's website. I didn't believe that so rapid a turnaround from field to lab to office could occur during the holiday season. But there it is! And it is good news!
Order of proceeding: Details contained in the December 21, 2004 news release prove that the Cassidy geologists are learning how to cope with nature's variety of tricks. This end of the year good news is also somehow symbolic, being as it is, "at both ends of the trend" good news. I frankly don't know "which end is "most up" in choosing which topics to deal with first. My brokerage training says, "always mention the best first, because most people don't read beyond the first paragraph". My reportage training says "end with a statement of maximum impact ringing in the readers ears to make your point memorable". I can't really decide which end is the better so I'll try to do a little of both.
FIRST: The sky was not falling! Fortunately for us Cassidy "pigs", its geologists' persistence in believing that there is extension of the (Sanu Filanan) SF trend towards the southwest bore fruit in abundance! Assays for the six holes drilled to evaluate the south end add "serious tonnage" fodder for the resource calculating people. For those of us addicted to the "what if process" the "what if" is that this trend, first chosen more by serendipity than by science, has become far longer, richer and wider than the "great unwashed" masses imagine. News of finding such rich grades in thick zones at KD-121, 122 and 123 should once more draw favourable attention to the stock. The making of the find and the acquisition previously of the exploration lands past the then southern border of Cassidy's lands underscores the quality of the entire working group looking after Cassidy's affairs. As an ex-explorationist I appreciate the angst of juggling costs of acquisition of new areas where a trend is leading you, against the reality of having a multiplicity of "maybe as good or better" leads elsewhere still to be investigated.
Whistling Dixie. Here we are in the deep south y'all. The exciting news from the early days of SF trend exploration left many of us a little bit jaded and unappreciative of the steady stream of news of "only" workaday good grades found afterward. These did not stir the fast stock market crowd. Now, these latest three "sexy" holes may be what is needed to convince more people of Cassidy's progression towards an exciting future. The more mundane "workaday" results from the other three southern holes will garner new perspectives as the importance of these in adding mining practicality is recognized. The widespread perception that Cassidy's find is a discontinuous minor quartz vein reflects prejudicial ignorance. The string of ignorance must break at some point as the trend gets longer and longer. The significance that three other in-country companies are actually mining and profiting from deposits clearly inferior to Cassidy's seems entirely unrecognized in the small caps market.
I love hole KD-125! I could sing about it! I love it not only for the jewel box quantity of contained gold assayed in its core, nor even for the fabulous true thickness of the high grade zone. Hole KD-125, I love you because you prove my contention, made several times, that it is unlikely that, entirely at random, the first few high grade holes on SF trend were drilled at the only location on the trend with high gold content. Now, for those with the imagination to make mines out of ideas, the missing part of hole KD-125 becomes all the more interesting. Consider....
AH SO! Geologists know that the concentration of minerals in a rock depends on there being space to host the minerals. One mechanism that creates space is what we call shears, the crushing and breaking which we see as having cause, meaning and pattern. The greater the crushing the greater the room for GOLD or any other desired mineral. When the shearing is very intense and white (often gold-bearing) quartz is injected, the rock appears as if it was put through a net or a sieve. We then call it a stockwork. When a stockwork is incredibly intense and riddled through with weak materials like GOLD! attempts to take ("cut") a core of such stockwork result in a crumbling of the rock by the diamond drill bit. There is then no core recovered from such a zone. Instead the material forming the stockwork is broken up and carried away by the pumped in drilling mud. The drill mud is usually not sampled or saved when coring in areas where good core recovery is the norm. So the probability is that the best (richest) part was not seen in KD-125! How rich were the missing eight feet? Sing, "K K K Kadie where the gold shines brightly, how much gold did you really hold?".
And what's more. While continuing in my feel good mood I want to crow a lot about one "fearless forecast" made on my Santa Calls page. Cassidy also announced on the 21st that it has come across more nearby vein trends to explore. My forecast that many added mineralized shear zones are indicated by the pattern of major structures is therefore, already vindicated. So riding the wave I make : Fearless forecast number nth : "Sometime in 2005 the exploration effort will result in an assay that will be higher grade than any reported to the end of 2004". Wanna bet?
Sorry about the geology lessons. I waited to introduce some tech terms used by my old geology professor, Dr B. Mawdsley. He cannily used descriptions appropriate to the understanding of geology by Saskatchewan students who had never come within a couple hundred miles of an outcropping of bedrock. For instance, he described shear zones as being "mixed up like a dog's breakfast". The vast mass of seething boiling molten rock or "magma" that provides both, the energy to shear the rocks and the juices that carry in the minerals, was referred to as "the goozly mess". How could one fail to understand? So now, when I lapse into a techno-tongue, you will of course, understand me fully.
Restoring the dream. The year ending press release has great importance from the Cassidy investor's point of view. The results reinforce that short term history, i.e. the last past assay results, does not even begin to indicate the mineral potential of the region where Cassidy is conducting its exploration. The thought process needs to involve a look at the long time evidence. The history of several millennia of gold production history from Guinea has not exhausted its potential. Cassidy has barely sampled the potential. The indication of so much gold remaining at so many places is truly incredible. To me, it is nearly impossible for Cassidy not to eventually end up with mineable reserves measured in millions of ounces. How many? Confirmation of that potential requires time and taking of action. Right now doing that calculation is a bit like solving the equation that says" Telephone pole 15 meters high find the length of the wire". Recognition of that potential will come slowly. It doesn't attract the day trader or the short seller. This discourse is not aimed at them in the least.
Speeding things up. Cassidy's 2004 exploration effort ran like a well-oiled machine. The fact that so effective an overseas effort was organized and managed from Kamloops, B.C. amazes some people. Not me. I know JT too well to ever be surprised at what he can accomplish. But you ain't seen nuthin' yet. In 2005, the Cassidy exploration juggernaut should really speed up. The core drill which operated so efficiently that geological staff were hard put to keep up with generation of appropriate targets, will be in use again. It will go after finding and confirming added areas with gold potential. The core drill will be joined by a reverse circulation drill. An "RC" drills holes much faster and more cheaply than a core drill. Reserves can be determined more cheaply with an RC after one knows where to drill. The RC samples are crushed bits of rock rather than cores, (cylinders of rock). Cores are a necessity in areas of new exploration where seeing the geometry and relationships between layers of rock is essential to understanding where to aim your efforts. Cassidy recently brought in a caterpillar tractor for the project. A "cat" can be an incredibly useful exploration tool. It builds roads to new areas of work, drags rigs to new drill sites and does trenching. Trenching is one of the cheapest exploration tools. The cat digs a ditch, but not along the length of a trend as an artisanal miner would prefer, but across the trend. Fresh, uncontaminated samples are taken in the form of chips gathered in a pattern that provides true representation of the average mineral content. Trenching speeds up the effectiveness of exploration drilling tremendously by pointing to the best trends, so you drill them first. By this time next year, we all will have some "numbers".
The Guinea
Gold from Guinea was used to mint gold coins in England from the pure gold gathered by Guinean natives. This gave rise to the English word "guinea" for a gold coin. A Golden Guinea, exactly 21 shillings, from the reign of George III is pictured below. In 1717, Sir Isaac Newton, as Master of the Mint, fixed the weight of the Guinea at 129.4 grains (0.2461 troy oz.) of Gold. With the exception of two short wartime periods, that weight was the unvarying benchmark for British circulating coinage and currency until 1931. In the Middle Ages, the eastern region of Ghana and Guinea known as Boure was Europe's most important source of gold. Production from there dates back to ancient times. An Ancient Greek historian, Herodotus says that merchants from Carthage traded gold from West Africa 2,500 years ago. The emperor of Guinea, Mali and Ghana took 100 camels loaded with 13 tonnes of gold to Mecca and Cairo in 1324. Those half million ounces of gold are said to have lowered the price of gold in Cairo for 25 years.
'Twas always said "If you are a high class gentleman, you would not dirty your gloves with anything but true gold guineas, coin of the realm".
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT Ed Zederayko is a shareholder of Cassidy Gold Corp. He is not an insider of the company.
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King Solomon's mines were in Ophir but no one has ever found Ophir. Cassidy's gold is found in Guinea.
Then shalt thou lay up gold as dust, and the gold of Ophir as the stones of the brooks - Job 22.24
News Reaction: The market's reaction to Cassidy Gold Corp's release of news on a Friday (December 3, 2004) underscores the adage that only pessimists read press releases made on Fridays. The press release detailed assay results from nine more holes on the Sanu Filanan trend. Three of these tests did not show significant results which is a result to be expected. When exploration is done one needs to find where the goodies ain't, as well as where they are. The stock price went down a ridiculous 10%. I believe I can guess the only part of the release that was read. To me those "no results" indicate only that the explorers were looking for results in holes deliberately drilled pointing away from the known trend. Too bad, but realistically, only a small disappointment! Three holes "dry" out of more than a hundred to date on this trend is not bad! This does bring a dose of reality home. If Gold was found everywhere it wouldn't sell for hundreds of bucks an ounce. Finding Gold in so many holes is meaningful! The positive results reported at the same time therefore should have had all the more positive effect based on the amount of good news they contained.
What was the news about? Santa was good to Cassidy early this Xmas, though some shareholders don't appreciate it. Cores from another six holes on Sanu Filanan provided good news. Read the details at Cassidy's website. Two southward stepout holes extend that vein trend by another 95 meters. My calculations make the Sanu Filanan trend to now be gold bearing for more than 1,700 meters, like - well - like a country mile - and that is a LONG way in the gold business. Best of all, four holes encountered impressive grades over substantial thicknesses. Two had gold in 34 and 30 meters thick zones. Another two showed more than 10 meter thick intercepts each. That's the kind of result needed to build substantial tonnages of pay dirt! Best of all, these results were found at shallow (0 meters) to intermediate depths i.e. they would be cheap to mine.
These results do my heart particularly good. Last year I did calculations to project the results seen from deep drilling to the surface on the logical basis that the zone had been mined for gold at surface by artisans. My projections reasoned that the deep results were from holes located at random and therefore "representative". The method is an unconventional exercise to apply to calculating gold resources but with the stock riding high, I wanted to know if it was dangerously ahead of real possible value. The calculation indicated potentials for a very large deposit. I am convinced that the market has never "over appreciated" the value potential indicated for the company. Now these latest cores confirm substantial gold bearing beds near surface. Results still to come from the continuing drilling together with expected "official national policy approved" (read "cautions") resource calculations in the near future should attract knowledgable investors capable of recognizing the difference between finding the limits of a deposit and finding that only a limited deposit exists.
More to come! Assay results are expected before the end of the year from ten more, already sent for assay, shallow tests along the JJ trend. More drilling is now happening along the Sanu Filanan but drilling operations will soon be shut down for the holiday season. There may still be more assays to come from the SF (Sanu Filanan) trend. Work to map new prospects and to generate more drilling targets on already recognized prospective areas will continue. Exploration using the core drill on some of the dozen or so already found additional areas of specific interest will resume in '05. I expect that determining the "official" resource calculation will spur the detailed work needed to generate a feasibility study for the advanced stage areas. Comparison of values with other gold miner companies will increasingly become more "conventionally" feasible.
What does it mean? For me, these latest results are just more icing on the cake. The wider market must soon appreciate that Cassidy is working in a region of truly unusual gold potential. Cassidy's discoveries continue to expand as information is added. Added drilling has not established limits. The company knows of a dozen more similar opportunity areas even though less than ten per cent of its total landholdings have been even cursorily surveyed. One discovery trend, (the JJ) shows results causing anticipation of demonstrable economic value being determined in '05. The evidence that gold occurrences are so widespread beneath the area where Cassidy has exclusive right to explore sets the company apart from almost all publicly traded "small cap" firms. The Company has adequate funds, estimated to still be more than one million dollars in treasury. This permits it to commit to and maintain an effective exploration and delineation program. The company's capability to access more money while in a condition to be discerning and "picky" about the sources and terms of accepting funds is an important attribute.
As to political concerns: One international explorationist expressed the opinion that if the find were in Canada the stock would be ten bucks already. In fact, Canadian conditions make getting mining approval far more uncertain. Mines are already operating and are expanding in Guinea. Cassidy's operations are in Guinea, West Africa, where gigantic companies, including Alcan and Alcoa are currently committing hundreds of millions of dollars to new enterprises. The country is considered to be among the more politically stable of West African nations. Cassidy has gained the respect of the Guinean government, which seeks Cassidy's honest opinions about how to encourage more exploration effort by gold exploration companies. The government recently gave Cassidy exploration permits over an additional area of seemingly extraordinary gold richness. The company has a dedicated complement of staff which has proved competent and loyal. The company's website, www.cassidygold.com contains more details than are typically provided by small companies.
Determination of amounts of gold classified as "resources" in satisfaction of rigid rules set by Canadian regulators is underway for part of one trend explored by Cassidy. This work is being done by one of the most reputable independent evaluation firms in the world. It will use multi-discipline gold analyses made by independent, Canada accredited, assayers. Those assays will be "audited" and further confirmed by labs in Canada. Concerns about the validity of these determinations should absolutely not give rise to negative investment decisions whatever. The resource determination will be for only part of a trend where drilling shows more gold. The question then becomes, "to what extent will the market believe that extensions of the so determined zone will be similar or identical with it, and, to what degree will there be anticipation of similar results from the exploration of the other dozen or so known trends that show indications of gold in a similar condition of emplacement?"
Logical logic: The essential logic to be applied to any investment decision is that Cassidy had no foreknowledge of whether the now much drilled Sanu Filanan trend was the best or the worst of the many ancient gold workings. The truth is (though it may never be admitted), drilling was done at SF only because it was nearest the road and a water source! The spectacular early results of the exploration may be totally misleading! Maybe the SF will turn out to be the poorest of all the trends! Any one of the other zones still to be explored might be found to be far richer. For example, what is in the Banjo trend, which goes 12,000 meters, compared to 1,700 (so far) for the much drilled SF trend? The resource determined for the SF trend will tell all, at last, how long a Cassidy trend needs to be to contain a million ounces. The time for recognition of the special attraction in Cassidy by a broader investor community seems imminent and inevitable. Let the scientific term persist. Its still a whoopee!
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT Ed Zederayko is a shareholder of Cassidy Gold Corp. He is not an insider of the company. |
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Cassidy's Nov 25/04 news release is the first one that appears to give results to show that the vein trend on which it has done the most drilling is not merely a slender wisp of gold bearing quartz vein. The angle between shears is like an arm body junction, hence the lead in.
Among structural geologists it is a universally accepted precept that when rocks fracture, the orientation of the fracture to the stress direction is on a 60 degree angle. The importance of shears is that they provide both the pathways and the "room" for mineralizing solutions to deposit the desired minerals. The diagram below is a crude drawing of the relationship indicated by the drilling of holes KD-18, KD-92 and KD-93. Hole 18 appears to have drilled the main zone. The other holes drilled shears. These are shown to have the 60 degree orientation vertically but probably may be more like a flower petal downwards, as if growing out from the main trend zone. The geometry is important but I will leave all arguments about the orientation to Cassidy's scientists. They will figure it out.
THE IMPORTANT THING IS .... TA DA !! :
CASSIDY NOW HAS PROOF THAT THE SYSTEM THEY ARE
DEALING WITH HAD THE POWER TO EMPLACE GOLD
MINERALIZATION FAR FROM THE MAIN SHEAR ZONE. THE FUTURE MINE PLAN WILL NOT DEPEND ON A THIN RIBBON OF ROCK. NOW IT IS CONFIRMED THERE IS A WIDER ZONE OF MINERAL. THIS IMPROVES THE ECONOMICS, WITH MORE PAY DIRT AVAILABLE TO COVER THE EXPENSE OF DIGGING DOWN TO IT. IT ALSO LESSENS THE FEAR THAT THE HIGH GRADE DISCOVERY ZONE COULD TURN INTO AN ELUSIVE
"WILL O' THE WISP".
YAHOO!! WHOOPEE! AND OTHER CALGARIAN SCIENTIFIC EXPRESSIONS!
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
Ed Zederayko is a shareholder of Cassidy Gold Corp. He is not an insider of the company
West Africa Wows Again!
This old Geologist, turned financial analyst (Ret.) is a shareholder in Cassidy Gold. The latest, (Nov 18, 2004) press release underscores the enormity of the discoveries that Cassidy has in Guinea. The announcement of high gold content zones, "virtually a jewel shop" moved the market a bit. The important "news" of this release (and previous ones) is largely unrecognized by the market. Some background and lessons on how I interpret information releases made by the responsible but non-promotional management of this gold exploration project is given. Here are some things that apply to Cassidy's finds and my observations about their meanings and values.
First off. There are two broad categories of gold occurrence found within the enormous area (near 1,000 square kms) held in Guinea by Cassidy. There is gold found in "veins", ribbons of rock (often quartz) that follow weaknesses in pre-existing rock. These probably once extended to the surface of the ground and may continue to great depths the depth could be kilometers. Hot fluids carried minerals along these veins. The veins twist and widen and narrow unpredictably. When the fluid in them cooled, minerals precipitated. Sometimes the minerals include Gold or other desirable substances.
There is also gold in a "saprolite" zone. Read "dirt" when you read the word saprolite. Saprolite is, simply put, rock soil, the result of erosion of pre-existing rock. In Guinea, the climate and topography is such that erosion products have not been carried a long distance from where they started to where they are now.
The truth about Cassidy's veins: In the absence of a comment saying "vein" the clue for recognition of one in a press release is report of a "true width". Cores from vein zones may follow along the vein. Geologists look at the angles of bedding to calculate the true width of a vein. Veins can be the "mother lode" that prospectors lust for. They are the direct sources of the gold ores as are/were mined at famous "hard rock" locations in Ontario and Quebec for instance. Drill results show wider spread occurrence of veins and richer gold content than was expected in the region that Cassidy has the right to explore and mine. Intercepts of gold bearing veins at depths of 260 meters are reported. They may go much much deeper. Engineers project gold content determinations for only short distances from where they are measured. Even if a vein is confirmed deep in the earth and has a gold showing at the surface, the extension of the zone is ignored until close spaced drilling confirms conditions of distribution. The engineers' first reserve numbers will tend to be understated when first announced because such facts must be honoured.
Cassidy is picking areas where gold occurs with amazing accuracy. Their geologists aren't bragging to others about the knowledge, but they are directing the company to acquire added prospective areas.
In Guinea the very dirt can be Golden: So remember: In a Cassidy press release, if the words "true width" are not used, that zone is probably measuring gold found in a stated thickness of "dirt". Dirt is dirt. It does not have specific "geometry" like a vein does. If it has gold in it the gold is probably diluted at any spot, but mixed in over a considerable sideways distance. Weather eroded the rocks. Gold bearing veins that stuck out at the surface disintegrated. This freed the gold that was tightly contained in solid rock of the "mother lode" veins. Miners will crush veins mechanically to get the gold out.
Because of the climate and topography in Guinea, the erosion that freed the gold did not carry it very far from the vein it came from. (Areas of gold rushes we know about like those in California, the Klondike or Barkerville found gold that had been carried and scattered far from where it may have been freed when the mother lode rock eroded.). The gold in soil in Guinea is disseminated vertically as well as aerially. Erosion tended to work as if "running in place".
So what? In Guinea, recognition of concentrations of gold occurred centuries ago. The saprolite gold has been mined for centuries. The gold grades found in the saprolite are very variable. Nuggets as large as 1500 grams (about 3.3 pounds) have been found. (See the nugget in hand at the top right of this page.) Cassidy undertook to explore a large area to better assure that it would find at least some areas to mine. Now Cassidy benefits greatly because it has a very large area where more gold is being found than could logically have been expected from historic knowledge.
Some explanation follows: The gold bearing saprolite ("dirt") zones in this area sometimes show as ridges, or as places that look like someone once spilt concrete (called "dura"). These were recognized centuries, maybe even millennia, ago. The local people, typically family groups working together, mined them. They are called artisinal workings. Cassidy continues to find even more artisanal mined areas. Some are still actively mined. Cassidy drills deeper for more gold.
Primitive mining methods limit native gold recovery efforts to depths of only a few meters. Lack of equipment causes this to be very hard work. Typically, it is not very economically rewarding to these families. They would prefer regular employment.
Mining occurred only along trends that are obvious, and near water so the dirt can be washed and where the rock has particles of coarse, visible gold to attract the "artisanal miners".
Resources distribution favours that greater amounts of fine gold compared with coarse visible gold will exist in almost every occurrence. So some of the areas that were not previously worked may actually carry more but finer gold. Sampling confirms that both saprolite and vein zones containing gold finer than can be seen by the naked eye exist. Native mining was not done for such gold. Such areas can represent enormous added amounts of gold that can be recovered at a profit. The area of old abandoned workings, current workings, topographic rises and abandoned ditches indicate where gold occurrence exists. These are not "mined out" if modern mechanical methods of mining are used. They need evaluation though. Drilling shows that the gold bearing saprolite can be up to 100 meters thick. Artisanal miners typically dug to only 5-meter depth.
Gold bearing veins are found to go far deeper. They are attractive targets, indeed the main targets at some localities. Cassidy's ability to find the extensions of these veins and gold rich dirt keeps getting better.
Modern "geochemical" sampling indicates added regions where gold bearing sediments cannot be recognized by visual prospecting methods. Geochemical searching is cheap and is proving very effective for Cassidy. Cassidy's website has maps that show results of geochemical sampling to date. Note that there is a great deal of concession area still not sampled. Considering that Cassidy has explored only a small part of its enormous concession area, the results already reported are incredible. Although less than 10% of the concession land area has been explored by sampling, more than a dozen prospective trends are identified.
Literally everywhere that drilling or trench sampling was done has resulted in finding encouraging shows of gold. This indicates a very rich area. Drilling in the first discovery zone, the Sanu Filanan proves that gold occurs along a trend length of almost 1.5 kilometers. The same trend extends an unknown distance beyond this, both ways, past the ends of Cassidy's exploration finds to date. Highly significant finds are also reported from drilling the nearby, ancillary, (possibly en echelon) separate trends, the Sanu Folo, North Sanu Folo, and the JJ Geologic theory suggests that these may all coalesce into a "super zone" at depth.
The "X" trend is the most recently announced high gold content discovery. It is many kilometers removed from the original Sanu Filanan discovery. The "X" trend found in mid 2004 is already confirmed to bear gold along a length of more than 650 meters. The probability that a "complex" of "X-related" gold bearing structures exists is a near certainty.
Another trend zone visited, the "Banjo" lies more than 15 kms to the NE. It was mined for more than 10 km along its length and is still actively mined. Drilling is scheduled here soon. So far, the major structure trends like Banjo have been found to be flanked by others that can be even richer.
The two next trends to be investigated are the Mani and Kinkine targets, 5 kilometers to the north and 4.5 kilometers to the east of X-vein, respectively. The distances between such targeted zones are great in terms of usual gold exploration practice, especially when one considers the amount of outstanding success that is being reported from so many localities. This is truly a Gold Camp!
I realize that these simplified descriptions will, on the one hand absolutely mortify the geological professional and tend to overwhelm the investor who merely wants to know "Is the stock going up?" I believe the answer is yes!! Very definitely and very substantially. Soon!! Here's why.
In a sense, most of Cassidy's efforts after discovery were designed to find out "how far the gold bearing structures DIDNT CONTINUE"! Cassidy discovered early that even when drilling was done at "unusual stepout distances" for the gold exploration business, the structures continue to show gold content for these long distances. In fact, none of the trends discovered have yet been found to end! Efforts to identify a "best" trend to concentrate on were confounded because so many gold bearing trends exist. When tested, all resulted in finds that were very worthy of follow up. To many, both the "knowing" and especially to the neophyte investor, the company appeared to have lost purpose. The greedy accused it of drilling here, there and everywhere without purpose. In fact, the company was exercising its fundamental purpose, which is to explore.
Management's response, since spring 2004 is to concentrate drilling to determine numbers that will comfort investors by specifying a "resource" volume of gold at one or two localities at least. These efforts will satisfy the "conventional investor". Projection of results from those areas with concentration of data points will, hopefully, signal more widely that the region may become a major gold camp. I again remind the reader of Cassidy's dominant land holding position here.
The economics. Occurrence of gold in potentially economic quantity over such large area and at so many localities is truly astounding by even Canadian standards. It is extraordinary for a small company to have so much early success and have so much room for expansion. The area held by Cassidy appears underlain by a very powerful heat engine, an "underground volcano" that is a "minerals fountain". The types of rock underlying this area are the host for major mines in nearby countries like Mali. After discovery, development of mining in Mali proceeded swiftly. Like Mali, Guinea needs to develop resources. The will to implement a balance of laws to see that this happens exists. Cassidy invests time and effort into being known as a good corporate citizen. Guinea is host to giant mining operations. One gold miner company (Guinor) operating nearby recently announced major expansion plans.
Full realization of the potential for mining all of Cassidy's areas may take years. However, the actions leading to anticipation of earnings from the first of these finds should be visible within months. Most likely, competitor companies in the business already recognize the attraction in Cassidy. The fact that control of the company is still held by the original "grubstakers" who financed efforts means that any attempt to take over the company or to enter into a joint venture with it must be proposed at a "fair" price. Moreover, the company has attracted persons who can both find finances and manage operations to effect mining.
One aspect of Cassidy's reporting in metric or SI units needs to be explained to most North Americans unfamiliar with metric measures. All one needs remember is that a meter is a little bit longer than 3 feet (1650 meters = approx. 1 mile) and, for gold measuring, there are about 32 grams to an ounce of gold.
Three "conventional" corporations already operate gold mines in Guinea. These were profitable even when gold prices were US$340 per oz ($10.50 or less per gram). Now with gold at the US$440 range ($13.75 per gram) they are either far more profitable or able to take lower grade ore and maintain earnings returns for longer to earn more in total. Without splitting hairs, the results of past operations of those profitable mines can be summarized to say that the operator with the highest cost reported it to be less than $8.00 per gram produced. This means that even at high operating cost, grades as low as 0.6 gr/ton could be a "break even" ore grade. The perspective for what is needed to justify gold recovery effort changes when one considers those facts.
So an investor needs to adjust his or her perspective away from the attractions of zones like the 151 g/t (over 4 oz/t) true width over 2 meters reported by Cassidy last week. Clearly, the reporting of thick (111 meters of 1.88 g/t grade rock) in another zone also looks very profitable. It is important to recognize that the average grades may be higher or lower not far from where a specific measurement is taken. It is much easier to believe the constancy and continuity of the 111-meter thick zone when assessing the risk of possible discontinuous extent in the making of a mining plan.
The more than 8 g/t gold bearing intervals are absolute "gravy" zones. Conventional expectation is for low grade to be found. The numerous occurrences of higher grades reported here attest to the area being geologically very "lively". The favorable expansion of mining economics by the existence of high grade intervals is profound. Such "lively" areas do create multimillion ounce deposits potential. (The "million ounce reserve" is a seeming holy grail in this business.) The key question will be," if there are xxx thousand ounces indicated in yyy meters, how much gold can there be in xx,000 meters of known trends?"
A factor to be considered in thinking about stock price is the continuing educating of investors. I think that few investors appreciate that the Company hires the best "outside" technical advice in the world. For instance, the metallurgy, (i.e. gold recovery process and rate) was determined for Cassidy by Lakefields Laboratories. That Ontario firm has the best possible worldwide reputation. Lakefield reported that 98% of the gold could be recovered by a simple, inexpensive, gravity settling procedure that will not harm the environment.
For the same truth seeking purpose, Cassidy engaged the Australian firm, RSG Global to determine the quantity of resource in the trends and to advise where and how much more effort needs be put in to properly calculate possible resources and make sensible investment decisions. RSG Global should be able to provide a first numbers in this before Christmas 2004.
While these firms names do not impress the average Canadian small mine investor, they do engender respect worldwide. When Cassidy deals with international banks, financiers or joint venturers, the confidence that such firms words instill will be there. Shareholders should stay aware. The "knee jerk" regulatory environment imposed on mining exploration company communications after the Bre-X affair prevents management from communicating honest anticipatory information. The pattern of actions taken by Cassidy strongly conveys that management's anticipations exceed most ordinary expectations. Most investors are truly too inexperienced to appreciate the significance of gold occurring in such promising quantity at so many localities. There are no comparable gold find historic examples in North America. The finds made in Africa that could be compared do not have a publicly available history of exploration and development. Recognition of what Cassidy's participation in such excellent good fortune can mean is slowly unfolding.
The calculation of resource potential for parts of even one or two of the zones will lay out a picture. Confusion should be resolved. More people will project potential for recovery of gold by comparing the studied areas with the early-indicated areas. Although the determinations may be used to under or over anticipate content of other zones, they will at last, provide guidelines to alert the shareholders of the enormous potentials that I believe are becoming increasingly apparent.
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
Ed Zederayko is a shareholder of Cassidy Gold Corp. He is not an insider of the company.
My purpose in writing these commentaries arises from frustration. For years, low gold prices and market scandal, especially that created by Canadian company Bre-X, virtually eliminated small gold exploration company activity. Brokerage firms eliminated their investment analysis of such companies, concentrating on the major producing miners. The combination of art and science needed to find companies with extremely undervalued potential, the ones providing such high reward that the high risk of financing exploration is warranted, was largely lost. "Analytic" reports written were too often in support only of underwritings done by the firm when gold prices drove new interest in exploration. As is to be expected in gold exploration, most new exploration efforts did not succeed. Companies that did achieve success are making their news known, but there do not seem to be any competent interpreters of that news. The strictures created by regulators prevent the companies themselves from communicating their hopes and raisons d'etre. My specific frustration stems from the fact that as far as I know, no analyst consistently follows and comments on the junior mining companies. Based on what I can see, prices go up and down on the say-so of often anonymous know-nothings. The small companies have traditionally been the discoverers of the reserves that the majors are depleting. Without the analysts following them, they don't do as well as (or as badly) as they should.
Ed Zederayko
A picture of the "nugget in hand" is at the side of this page (and every page of my blog). At 1500 grams, this nugget has a gold value of US$21,000 or almost C$25,000. As a showpiece nugget, it probably would fetch more. Gold is incredibly soft - but the angularity of this nugget indicates that it had not "traveled" or been carried far away from the spot that God made it.
Sure looks like another good hunting area to me!
Cassidy was on the bit and when it became aware of the find, immediately applied to the government to obtain the mineral rights to the area where this piece was found. Its success was announced in a news release on December 1, 2004.
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
Ed Zederayko is a shareholder of Cassidy Gold Corp. He is not an insider of the company.
Who is Ed Zed?
I am a geologist. I also worked for many years as a widely followed stock analyst evaluating and reporting on resource company shares. My primary expertise as a geologist is structural geology. My primary past acknowledged special talent as an investment analyst is in applying geological precepts to evaluate risk and reward potentials in exploration situations and communicating these to non-geologist investment managers and investors. My projections of likely resource amounts are based on precepts of geology. My anticipations of value are derived by keenly observing financial news and then creating "what ifs" using my experience to anticipate value for the stocks that I am interested in. I do not intensely follow a stable of junior gold exploration stock. I am a longtime shareholder of Cassidy common shares.
My opinions are based entirely on interpretation of material in the public domain. I use Cassidy's excellent website. I interpret Cassidy's success to already have occurred. Only the magnitude of value more than current share price remains to be determined by continuing activity. My definition of success is that they have found astounding accumulations of gold, some part of which at least, can be mined at a profit.
Ed Zederayko
Disclosure Statement
Ed Zederayko is a shareholder of Cassidy Gold Corp. He is not an insider of the corporation.